Iran is likely to respond to new attacks from Israel or additional Western sanctions by edging ever closer to crossing the nuclear threshold, according to a just-released U.S. intelligence assessment.
The unclassified report, issued Thursday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, finds that while Tehran is not currently poised to build a nuclear weapon, it is undertaking activities “that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses.”
The report states that since July, Iran has continued to increase its stockpiles of 20% and 60% enriched uranium while also manufacturing and operating a growing number of advanced centrifuges.
The U.S. intelligence assessment further warns that Iranian officials have been increasingly willing to “publicly discuss the utility of nuclear weapons.”
“Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium at multiple underground facilities, if it so chooses,” the report says. “Iranian leaders recognize that this bolsters the credibility of threats to develop nuclear weapons.”
The ODNI report estimates that Iran’s existing stockpiles of enriched uranium far exceed what it needs for civilian purposes and that Tehran could build “more than a dozen nuclear weapons if its total uranium stockpile were further enriched.”
A U.S. intelligence assessment of Iran’s capabilities issued this past July similarly said that officials in Tehran were becoming more comfortable talking about the use of nuclear weapons.
But the new report suggests Tehran is now prepared to push back against Western pressure, attacks or other threats with more nuclear activity.
“Iran probably will consider installing or operating more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, enriching uranium up to 90 percent, or threatening to withdraw from the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” according to the latest ODNI assessment.
U.S. officials have previously warned that Tehran could produce a nuclear warhead in as little as one to two weeks, though they have also said the Pentagon has options to stop an Iranian nuclear breakout.
The Iranian mission at the United Nations has yet to respond to a request for comment.
U.S. intelligence analysts say that their concerns extend beyond nuclear weapons to include Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities.
The U.S. assessment says Iran “almost certainly is incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack against Israel in April and from Russia’s operational use of Iranian UAVs against Ukraine.”
U.S. intelligence additionally “expects Tehran will incorporate performance data from the close-range ballistic missiles it transferred to Russia once they are used in operational conditions.”
And help from Russia could also boost Iran’s work on multiple space-launch missiles, possibly shortening the timeline for Tehran to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile, the ODNI report warns.
A second unclassified intelligence report released Thursday detailed additional Iranian support for Moscow.
Iran “probably is training and assisting Russian soldiers in UAV [drone] operations,” it said, adding, “Moscow and Tehran also have agreed to establish a joint production line in Russia for lethal UAVs.”
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